Historian who has predicted every race since 1984 says Trump will lose to Biden in November

by Peter Heck · Aug 6th, 2020 9:43 am

Last Updated Oct 14th, 2020 at 3:40 pm

In discouraging news for President Trump and his supporters, history professor Allan Lichtman of the American University has predicted that Joe Biden will win the presidency in 2020. Lichtman has accurately forecast the outcome of every presidential election since 1984, including Trump's surprise victory in 2016 over heavily-favored Hillary Clinton.

Unlike most presidential prognosticators who focus on daily polling trends, Lichtman says those are mere "snapshots in time." Instead, he evaluates 13 different true/false statements regarding the accomplishments of the incumbent party holding the White House. Statements that are assessed to be true favor the incumbent, while those deemed false favor the challenger.

Lichtman says that if six or more of the statements are determined to be false, the challenger will win the election. He said that his evaluation for the 2020 election concludes seven false statements, which "predict[s] that Trump will lose the White House."

Lichtman's prediction is at odds with another remarkably accurate election modeler. The "Primary Model" conducted by Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University has predicted five out of the last six presidential elections correctly and 25 of the 27 elections since 1912. Norpoth said there is a better than 9 in 10 chance Trump wins reelection this year.

Lichtman revealed his prediction in a video for the New York Times on Wednesday.


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