Historically accurate election model shows Trump with 91% chance of winning

by Peter Heck · Jul 10th, 2020 11:36 am
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Last Updated Jul 14th, 2020 at 1:21 am

One of the few election models that accurately predicted a Trump victory in 2016 has shown that the president is set to win again in 2020.

The "Primary Model" conducted by Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth, which has accurately predicted five out of the last six presidential elections, gives President Trump a better than 9 in 10 chance of victory in November over Democrat Joe Biden.

"The Primary Model gives Trump a 91% chance of winning in November," Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

The Primary Model uses the candidate's performance in early primary elections to calculate their odds of success in the general election. Biden had an inauspicious start, placing fourth in Iowa, fifth in New Hampshire, and second in Nevada. Trump, meanwhile, did very well in generating a strong turnout.

Norpoth acknowledges that his results do not mirror the current polling in the country.

"Well, I don't go by opinion polls, I go by the real polls," Norpoth said last week during an appearance on "Lou Dobbs Tonight. "I go by what happens in the primary elections. And in those primary elections, especially in the early ones, Donald Trump did very well, and Joe Biden, as many of you may have forgotten by now, struggled in New Hampshire, where he came in fifth."

The two elections that the Primary Model failed to predict accurately in the last 108 years were the 1960 victory of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 victory of George W. Bush.


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