IHME increases total projected U.S. coronavirus deaths to 134K — more than double previous estimate

by Laura Mize · May 5th, 2020 1:04 pm

A model created by the University of Washington predicts the U.S. will see more than 130,000 deaths due to coronavirus — more than twice the number projected in the model's last estimate in early April.

A previous estimate from the university projected 60,415 deaths by August 4, 2020, down significantly from even earlier estimates. The newest model, last updated Monday, more than doubles that, projecting a total of 134,475 deaths from coronavirus.

Although it officially estimates around 134,000 deaths, the current model from the university's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation also provides a range for the possible death count. The latest estimated death toll range is from 95,092 to 242,890 and is "based on a new hybrid model," according to a press release from the institute, which combines the hospital resource demand with a disease transmission model.

The disease transmission model takes into account the effects of testing, contract tracing, relaxed social distancing, rising outdoor temperatures, and increased movement of the U.S. population as some states begin to reopen business,

The release also warns that higher outdoor temperatures, combined with ramped-up testing and contact tracing, "do not offset rising mobility, thereby fueling a significant increase in projected deaths." The institute said it expects the impact of warmer temperatures in hampering COVID-19 to be "minimal."

? The United States has more than 1 million cases and more than 67,000 deaths from the coronavirus, according to the latest data from the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention.


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