IHME reduces total projected number of U.S. coronavirus deaths to 60K

by Laura Mize · Apr 8th, 2020 12:09 pm

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

The University of Washington's model that predicts coronavirus deaths in the United States has again revised its projections downward, to a total of 60,415 expected deaths by August 4, 2020.

The White House relies on the model, designed by the university's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, to inform its response to the pandemic and in relaying information to the American public.

On April 1, the White House's Coronavirus Task Force told the public the projected number of U.S. deaths from coronavirus would be between 100,000 and 240,000, based on the IHME model. Since then, other people have said the number of deaths would be much lower, including philanthropist and Microsoft founder Bill Gates, and Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The models projections are made with the assumption that Americans maintain "full social distancing through May 2020."

The IHME model also predicts the country will reach "peak resource use" on April 11, and peak number of single-day deaths — 2,212 — on April 12, 2020.


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