New IHME model shows dates of expected peaks in deaths and healthcare overload by state

by Jordyn Pair · Apr 7th, 2020 2:25 pm
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Last Updated Apr 7th, 2020 at 3:25 pm

A new model developed by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and favored by the White House expects the nationwide peak in coronavirus deaths to hit on April 16. The IHME projects that there will be 3,130 deaths on that date alone across the country.

For some states — such as Colorado, Delaware, Louisiana, Vermont, and Washington — the peak has already passed. However, peak for other states may be up to three weeks away.

Below is the state-by-state data from IHME's model, broken down by peak resource use, peak daily deaths, and number of deaths expected on the peak date.

  • Alabama. Peak resource use: April 18. Peak daily deaths: April 22 (43).
  • Alaska. Peak resource use: April 17. Peak daily deaths: April 21 (18).
  • Arizona. Peak resource use: April 23. Peak daily deaths: April 23 (17).
  • Arkansas. Peak resource use: April 24. Peak daily deaths: April 27 (10).
  • California. Peak resource use: April 14. Peak daily deaths: April 17 (70).
  • Colorado. Peak resource use: April 4. Peak daily deaths: March 31 (22).
  • Connecticut. Peak resource use: April 21. Peak daily deaths: April 22 (192).
  • Delaware. Peak resource use: April 5. Peak daily deaths: March 31 (4).
  • Florida. Peak resource use: April 21. Peak daily deaths: April 21 (242).
  • Georgia. Peak resource use: April 20. Peak daily deaths: April 21 (137).
  • Hawaii. Peak resource use: April 12. Peak daily deaths: April 12 (17).
  • Idaho. Peak resource use: April 14. Peak daily deaths: April 16 (4).
  • Illinois. Peak resource use: April 16. Peak daily deaths: April 12 (208).
  • Indiana. Peak resource use: April 17. Peak daily deaths: April 16 (97).
  • Iowa. Peak resource use: April 26. Peak daily deaths: April 26 (17).
  • Kansas. Peak resource use: April 19. Peak daily deaths: April 23 (10).
  • Kentucky. Peak resource use: April 21. Peak daily deaths: April 25 (54).
  • Louisiana. Peak resource use: April 1. Peak daily deaths: April 3 (60).
  • Maine. Peak resource use: April 15. Peak daily deaths: April 19 (6).
  • Maryland. Peak resource use: April 18. Peak daily deaths: April 19 (138).
  • Massachusetts. Peak resource use: April 18. Peak daily deaths: April 18 (373).
  • Michigan. Peak resource use: April 8. Peak daily deaths: April 9 (190).
  • Minnesota. Peak resource use: April 23. Peak daily deaths: April 26 (24).
  • Mississippi. Peak resource use: April 18. Peak daily deaths: April 19 (20).
  • Missouri. Peak resource use: April 19. Peak daily deaths: April 18 (12).
  • Montana. Peak resource use: April 13. Peak daily deaths: March 30 (4).
  • Nebraska. Peak resource use: April 24. Peak daily deaths: April 25 (18).
  • Nevada. Peak resource use: April 18. Peak daily deaths: April 20 (50).
  • New Hampshire. Peak resource use: April 15. Peak daily deaths: April 16 (2).
  • New Jersey. Peak resource use: April 15. Peak daily deaths: April 16 (584).
  • New Mexico. Peak resource use: April 21. Peak daily deaths: April 22 (27).
  • New York. Peak resource use: April 8. Peak daily deaths: April 9 (878).
  • North Carolina. Peak resource use: April 13. Peak daily deaths: April 15 (30).
  • North Dakota. Peak resource use: April 17. Peak daily deaths: April 20 (22).
  • Ohio. Peak resource use: April 8. Peak daily deaths: April 12 (29).
  • Oklahoma. Peak resource use: April 22. Peak daily deaths: April 24 (29).
  • Oregon. Peak resource use: April 21. Peak daily deaths: April 21 (5).
  • Pennsylvania. Peak resource use: April 11. Peak daily deaths: April 15 (32).
  • Rhode Island. Peak resource use: April 27. Peak daily deaths: April 29 (40).
  • South Carolina. Peak resource use: April 24. Peak daily deaths April 29 (14).
  • South Dakota. Peak resource use: April 25. Peak daily deaths: April 27 (9).
  • Tennessee. Peak resource use: April 15. Peak daily deaths: April 18 (25).
  • Texas. Peak resource use: April 19. Peak daily deaths: April 20 (72).
  • Utah. Peak resource use: April 25. Peak daily deaths: April 26 (7).
  • Vermont. Peak resource use: March 23. Peak daily deaths: April 1 (3).
  • Virginia. Peak resource use: April 20. Peak daily deaths: April 22 (59).
  • Washington. Peak resource use: April 2. Peak daily deaths: March 27 (24).
  • West Virginia. Peak resource use: April 16. Peak daily deaths: April 17 (17).
  • Wisconsin. Peak resource use: April 17. Peak daily deaths: April 15 (32).
  • Wyoming. Peak resource use: April 29. Peak daily deaths: April 29 (6).

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