According to the latest national polls, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden currently holds a nearly 10-point lead over President Trump, although the public opinion surveys point to a closer race between the two in critical battleground states.
An average of the latest national polls compiled by Real Clear Politics indicates Biden leading Trump by 9.0 points, up from a 6.9 point advantage a month ago.
The average includes a CNN survey that has Biden in a 16-point lead over the president. The CNN poll was conducted completely after the first presidential debate and mostly after Trump's hospitalization for COVID-19.
An NBC/Wall Street Journal survey also contributed to the average showing that Biden is up by 14 points. The CNN and NBC surveys were conducted after the first presidential debate, but before the president tested positive for the coronavirus.
"There's some sense that Biden got a little bit of a bump not only out of the debate, but with the president getting diagnosed with COVID," said Daron Shaw, the Republican partner on the Fox News Poll and a member of the Fox News Decision Team.
In the last presidential race, Trump barely edged Clinton in a number of the key general election battlegrounds. Trump was able to produce a large Electoral College victory by flipping the key swing states of Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from blue to red.
An average of the latest polls in swing states shows Biden up by 3.5 points in Florida, 5.8 points in Michigan, 5.6 points in Wisconsin, and 6.5 points in Pennsylvania.
"There's always a lag between statewide polls and the national polls and its one of the reasons why it's important to continue to do national polling," said Shaw, a polling veteran of numerous Republican presidential campaigns. "As battleground state polls come in over the next few days, my guess is that they'll probably show something similar, that is a very small tick up for Biden."
🔦 Although Election Day is still four weeks away, voting is now well underway in much of America. Seventeen states already have in-person voting at polling stations, while 37 states have started sending absentee ballots out to the voters who have requested them.