Popular health model projects more than 567,000 COVID-19 deaths by April

by Laura Mize · Dec 24th, 2020 11:45 am
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Last Updated Dec 26th, 2020 at 7:29 pm

The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a popular COVID-19 data model, projects that the U.S. death toll from the virus will reach 567,195 by April 1, 2021.

With rapid vaccine rollout, the IHME model projects 555, 373 deaths by the same date. Each projection by the IHME presents a central number as well as a range of projected possible deaths. For this latest projection, the top end of the range is 731,151 and assumes states let up on mandates meant to reduce coronavirus spread.

In late March, the White House publicized a projection of 100,000 to 240,000 COVID-19 deaths nationwide. By early April, IHME, had revised its model to project just over 60,000 deaths by August 4, 2020.

In early May, the same model projected the nation would see 134,000 COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020, and put the top of the range at 242,890.

As of December 24, the total number of deaths related to the coronavirus is 291,757, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

🔦 California is being hit especially hard with COVID-19 this holiday season. On Wednesday, the state reached 2 million total cases of the virus since the pandemic began.


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